Craig Lord

July 2, 2015

With most leading swimming nations having put their only or main selection meet behind them and several countries having named significant squads for World Championships this August, SwimVortex marked its 2nd anniversary last month with the start of a series looking ahead to the summer showcase.

Who is shaping up for a knockout in Kazan?

Which teams are looking strong?

Where will thrill spill, upset sneak in, status be maintained and lost?

We started with the performer of the season so far, Britain’s Adam Peaty, with that 57.92 world 100m breaststroke record. We then considered the guessing game that is the USA in a year without trials on the way to world titles before turning to the defending champions, starting with men’s freestyle, before backstroke, breaststroke, butterfly and medley. John Lohn then considered where the USA medals might come from among men. After women’s medley, butterfly, breaststroke and backstroke we turned to freestyle before John considered where the USA’s women will stack up.

After an overview of the solo champions and who among them can make history in Kazan when it comes to titles counts, we turn to relays, starting with the Men’s 4x100m freestyle and Women’s 4x100m freestyle before we looked at the Women’s 4x100m medley and the Men’s 4x100m medley. Today:

Men’s 4x200m freestyle

Barcelona 2013

United States – 7:01.72

Conor Dwyer (1:45.76)
Ryan Lochte (1:44.98)
Charlie Houchin (1:45.59)
Ricky Berens (1:45.39)
Russia – 7:03.92

Danila Izotov (1:45.14)
Nikita Lobintsev (1:46.23)
Artem Lobuzov (1:46.16)
Alexander Sukhorukov (1:46.39)
China – 7:04.74 NR

Wang Shun (1:47.41)
Hao Yun (1:47.25)
Li Yunqi (1:46.92)
Sun Yang* (1:43.16)

The USA has a strong shot at retaining the crown. Yes, they are one obvious strength down this summer – Michael Phelps – and will try out some new guns on the senior team but the might is still there to make it a will when it comes to winning. Australia is chief among quartets that has the potential to spoil their party.

For Ryan Lochte, gold would make him a record breaker: no swimmer has ever won six straight relay golds in the same event at world titles. Lochte’s first winning moment stems back to Montreal 2005, spans Melbourne 2007, Rome 2009, Shanghai 2011 and Barcelona 2013. Kazan could complete a decade of victorious 4x200m honours with USA teammates.
The 4x200m is one of those events in which the full throttle and drag of shiny suits stares back at us yet: 14 of the fastest 20 times ever belong to shiny suits.

In textile, the 6:59.70 of the USA at the London 2012 Olympic Games remains the only sub-7min blast, France’s silver in 7:02.77 second-best ever, a 7:03.92 from Russia at 2013 world titles third. Then comes the stunner in its time of 7:04.66 from an Australia quartet in 2001 that included a man who returns to 4x200m action this summer in Kazan, Grant Hackett (included in our lists below with his career best to show where Australia might get to with that sort of clout), with quartets from China an Japan joining the sub-7:05 club in 2013.

The most recent full season, in 2014, saw Germany take the European crown in 7:09.00, and a Scottish quartet join the sub-7:10 club in 7:09.18, while Britain has a 7:09.33 best from 2012 ahead of this season, which promises a new best ever as Scottish and English teammates race in the colours of the Union. In a year that boasted no global long-course event, the USA led the ranks with a 7:05.17 from Pan Pacs ahead of a 7:05.30 from the same race, Japan taking silver, while the 7:07.38 in which Australians claimed the Commonwealth crown ended the year third best.

In an exercise in which we put up front from go the best 200m swimmer from each of the main nations gunning for gold and then add the best splits of the next three fastest available (taking 1sec off a solo PB for any swimmer whose relay splits have never been better than best solo effort), the below is what we get, though keep in mind the capacity of some of those big names up front to produce even more frenzied speed when chasing down the medals as last man in (China, USA among nations on this calculation hat add up to slower than their national records, availability of best line up among the explanations. What the below shows us is what we know: on a day when all are firing as they can, this final could be an eight-lane thriller.

When firing at best as we know it so far:

AUS – 7:00.36

1:45.08 Tom Fraser-Holmes
1:44.84 Grant Hackett
1:45.82 David McKeon
1:44.46 Cameron McEvoy
FRA- 7:02.44

1:43.14 Yannick Agnel
1:45.40 Jeremy Stravius
1:46.61 Gregory Mallet
1:47.29 Clement Mignon
USA – [7:02.52] 7:02.68

1:44.44 Ryan Lochte
1:45.23 Conor Dwyer
[1:46.44 Matt McLea – injured]
1:46.41 Reed Malone
1:46.60 Connor Jaeger
RUS – 7:03.02

1:44.87 Danila Izotov
1:46.16 Artem Lobuzov
1:46.23 Nikita Lobintsev
1:45.66 Alex Sukhorukov
JPN – 7:03.29

1:45.23 Kosuke Haggis
1:45.59 Takeshi Matsuda
1:45.78 Reo Sakata
1:46.69 Yuki Kobori
GBR – 7:04.39

1:46.32 James Guy
1:46.44 Robbie Renwick
1:45.53 Calum Jarvis
1:46.10 Nicholas Grainger
CHN – 7:05.06

1:44.47 Sun Yang
1:46.74 Li Yunqi
1:47.60 Mao Felian
1:47.25 Hao Yun

Germany, Italy and Belgium are also among team who will fight for a place in the final, though the quartets above are the only ones that add up o a time of 7:06 or better in our exercise, textile only.

We conclude the series tomorrow with the women’s 4x200m freestyle. Before that, a quick note on …

Mixed Relays – Golden Shots

The least predictable of events in Kazan will be the mixed relays, among contributors to uncertainty the novelty of the events and the fact that we cannot guess at the emphasis nations will place at the circus end of the program when so many key names have big-enough schedules on their plates.

In the 4x100m freestyle, provided that the best take to their blocks, the battle for gold is likely to come down to Australia Vs the USA, with Cate and Bronte Cambell, Cameron McEvoy and Tomasso D’Orsogna up against Missy Franklin, Simone Manuel, Nathan Adrian and Jimmy Feigen, for example, Russia, France, Italy and Brazil among others nations with a shot at the medals. The Campbell sisters have the potential to share four podiums in Kazan.

In the 4x100m medley, the likes of Matt Grevers, Jessica Hardy*, Tom Shields and Simone Manuel for the USA, would face the likes of Emily Seebohm, Christian Sprenger, Emma McKeon and Cameron McEvoy for Australia, Chris Walker-Hebborn, Adam Peaty, Rachel Kelly and Fran Halsall from Britain, Daria Ustinova*, Yuliya Efimova*, Viacheslav Prudnikov and Vladimir Morozov.

All of that is most uncertain given the priorities of solo medal hopes and commitment that already stretches to other relays in many cases. Kazan will give a clue as to where the mixed relays fit into the thinkings of nations come the biggest of occasions beyond the Olympic Games that don’t feature such events. Anything but the best four among the best nations will place the mixed novelty events in the category of FINA ideas that mess up historic medal counts and more without producing the quality of battle to be found in other events.

* – swimmer has tested positive in their career

Read the original article at the Swim Vortex website